The Second Life world is built of unintended consequences, and as such is a test bed for what comes next as the metaverse arises.
In New York, I scoped the booths and sat in on the workshops and listened to Sibley (or watched Sibley, is more like it, he has expressive hands) who gave the following presentation of the technical obstacles on the road to paradise:
Sibley argues that the broader economic incentive to participate in virtual worlds is a feedback loop which funds that next phase of development, and he identifies six buckets in which development needs to take place in order to plant the seeds for ever-increasing pools of “spend”. Now, Sibley’s talking here about the broader world – the marketers, Nikes, CSIs…and he glances over at the kid’s worlds where they seem to have a handle on adoption and navigation, but whatever little bits of code they’ve got under the hood will probably stay under there, Barbie isn’t going open source anytime soon, nor is Habbo, and don’t even think of calling up the folks at Disney or Nickelodeon for copies of their source code.
I’m not a techy, but I do see little bits and pieces of the puzzle, floating past, there’s no particular pattern to it all, it’s a bunch of mostly small companies spitting out solutions to some problem or other, and a few larger companies like Microsoft pontificating on what the Metaverse should be, which is a mirror world, but hopefully shinier with a proprietary operating system.
We Wander Around
So you have a bunch of people who, say, like to code, or make stuff, or maybe they just like to play games, and that’s how I showed up, I was looking to find out the Spore release date and somehow Second Life popped up in Google and there was something about “Your World, Your Imagination” so I came in for a visit, had no preconceived notions, and here I am. And where the people start to roam, the media starts to follow, especially if there are some flying genitalia or kid AVs or bank crashes or folks who made a million selling virtual land. The money precedes, it follows, it flows, it dribbles, it gushes, and all along there’s no real plan, we’re making this up as we go along, let’s put on a show!
The only thing is that as the range of choices grows, people start getting a little antsy, because someone comes out with a simpler tool, but it’s off on some other platform somewhere. Used to be you had the Maya and the Poser and the 3DS people off in one corner populating Content Paradise, and then you had the Google Sketch-Up folks who just like to doodle, and then you had the Second Life content creators who had the added benefit that they could sell what they made, and Philip Rosedale applauded these junior entrepeneurs: “On the other hand, Rosedale noted, running a small business in Second Life can be “a lemonade stand experience, and may be superior to other kinds of learning.”"
Pick Your App
So then the coders don’t like some of the code over on Second Life and start rallying around open source. And the content creators get better, or others want in, and so little tools pop up to bring different kinds of content in to Second Life, like Maya plug-ins and AutoCAD importers, and then someone figures out that OpenGL is also the way to get the stuff OUT, and where better to put it than over on RealXtend where a single sim can host 100,000 prims and it has meshes, and a really cool avatar management system, and now I’m wandering around trying to figure out where to spend my time – I was trying to sell houses but maybe the houses will be ripped off by a CopyBot, or someone will do a 3D print screen of my sim and I’ll next see it over on one of the OpenSims.
Meanwhile the money has followed, and it got tired of trying to find new Facebook investments, so you have Vivaty and Scenecaster and a bunch of other micro worlds, although they’re really living rooms, and there are warehouses of content that you can buy, give, take, click, link through to Google, share….well, the content is everywhere, and over at VastPark they’ve suddenly got 195,000 high quality builds for sale, you know, the rendered kind like Neptune, so now there’s a pool of content creators out there somewhere who don’t even need to set foot in the virtual worlds, they can fiddle around in 3DS or use the simpler stuff like TrueSpace (owned by Microsoft) or 3DVIA Shape maybe, doesn’t matter, content is ubiquitous isn’t it?
Lord Linden We Beseech Thee
But back to unintended consequences, because as Wagner James Au pointed out in his book, Second Life was built on them – decisions the folks at Linden Lab made that didn’t quite pan out like they thought they would, what with tax revolts and war zones and so on, and now they seem to have some sort of intention, it’s not entirely clear what, they’re either cleaning up for an IPO, or showing their Bolshevik stripes, or maybe they don’t have a plan at all…the guy in charge of pricing has some sort of mysterious target, and the person who’s looking after legal went out for a long lunch with the lawyers and decided it was time to get serious about trademark protection, and besides Philip is off meeting with National Geographic or trying to get a copy of Ray’s vitamin regimen.
But whether intended or not, now you’ve got the largest group of participants in this mapless development pathway to the metaverse sputtering and blustery, and whether you’re a blogger who’s not feeling so thrilled about trying to figure out how to get the little circle R to work, or you’re a landowner whose holdings were slashed by 40%, or maybe you’re just a user out for a good time and don’t GET that Havok4 is great because what you experience is a grid that’s groaning and straining and crashing and you never know if your friends list will load, or where you’ll end up teleporting to, and when you start getting TOO MANY USERS they cut off half the functions of the grid in order to “make it a more enjoyable experience for all”.
(Yeah, they PUNISH the world if too many people show up. Um. OK.)
The Massive Mall of the Metaverse
There is no metaverse.
But there’s lots of 3D spaces to go and hang out, and there’s more coming. Choice abounds. Looks like a metaverse, kind of…I mean sure, there’s more to build, and Sibley has his buckets, and some day we’ll all float through information streams and mirror worlds and our realities will be augmented and our avatars will be expressive and we’ll be able to buy cool toys and put them in our virtual living rooms and we’ll putter around on VastPark or we’ll open a little shop in Second Life and then we’ll go to work behind the IBM firewall and no one right now can clearly tell us WHY we’ll do all these things, just that some of them are more fun maybe, or that we’re going to save the planet because we won’t need to fly anymore, we’ll all meet in virtual boardrooms with links to Skype and the meetings will be twice as long and pointless as they are in real life, it’s what keeps the economy moving is meetings, so why not have more of them, we don’t have to worry about airport security anymore, and we can spend half the time fixing our avatar’s hair and adjusting the 3D camera so it can’t see that we forgot to shave this morning.
So Sibley is mapping out the technology road map, bless him, we needed the guidance.
And Linden is inviting everyone to play – it’s cheap enough now, everyone can come in and set up a sim, and if they can’t afford the main grid there’s some guy in his basement selling server space using Open Sim, and if they can’t afford THAT well, rental prices are going to drop and after all, you can still pay your tier by selling clothes or cars or what have you.
But hold on….because if objects are a commodity, or ripped off, or interoperable across worlds, or downloaded from TurboSquid, or picked up in a big juicy box of freebies, and if server space is so cheap that the notion of ‘developing’ a sim is almost meaningless, there’s such a glut of servers…then what’s my mental model supposed to be again for how all this makes any sense?
Because Second Life is supposed to be a user-generated world, right? And Linden seems to be saying “yes, user generated, and it’s the generation that’s the important part, not whether what you write, or how much money you make, or how many pairs of jeans you own or what it cost to get them that makes the difference – it’s all gonna be one big wide world of open source code and copiable content and it’s what you DO with it that makes the difference, although we’re placing bets that we’d better let the companies get a better track on participating, because a bunch of users is just, well, they’re just SURFERS really, you need the guiding hand of folks who are ORGANIZED, like IBM, to help make sense of your little board room with the crappy table, come on behind the firewall folks, it’s safe in here.”
It’s the Economy, Stupid
So now we’re back in the land of unintended consequences.
Linden changes land pricing. Linden gives a gut punch to the bloggers and businesses who use the Second Life brand to help promote themselves, and by extension Second Life itself. And in doing so, they interrupt the most important economy there is – the economy of ideas.
Land isn’t server space. You can talk all you want about the price of hardware or how the system for plugging in new islands will be automated, but land is an idea. It’s a metaphor and it’s a sign post. For some people, it’s very real money, but business is tough, and you can get swept up in sub-prime or you can swept up in a price reduction in Second Life, buyer beware and all that….it’s not just the financial impact that’s at stake here it’s the IDEA of land.
The Second Life trademark isn’t just a brand that deserves all the due protection afforded by law. It’s an IDEA. And the idea of the brand was embraced by a community of people and now they’ve been told that YOUR idea of our brand is no longer OUR idea of the brand, so shape up and redirect your domain and here’s a new little logo for you, do something with THAT idea.
Linden toys with going open source, because it’s just code. But open source as well is an idea – and over amongst the open sim folks, it’s an idea upon which other ideas are built, like worlds with no economies, or different governance models, it’s what you can do with the code that matters, not how protected it is.
So with all these little twists and turns down there in the mechanics of firewalls, and openGL extractors, and copyright protection, and land pricing, there’s a culture of ideas that’s being influenced, and the unintended consequence might be that for the people working through the IDEA of the metaverse, Linden is making itself irrelevant.
Because the metaverse is as much about culture, and collaboration, and the sharing and exploration of concepts as it is about server racks and crash rates. And I’ve come to believe that the culture bubbling up in the metaverse, whether in the soft young minds exploring Habbo Hotel or virtual Barbie, or the prim spinners drawn by Bettina’s joy and passion who are creating over on Rezzable a Garden of NPIRL Delights, is a lot different than the culture I’m used to.
And you fiddle with the mechanics, and you fiddle with the culture. You take away protection for objects, and the content creators will either head off where the content has greater protection or, just as likely, they’ll elevate their game, and in elevating their game will create their own little mini guilds with powers of their own, and the ability to take their work to whatever grid makes the most sense, because after all it’s a market place for ideas now, not for objects, and Linden doesn’t show a sensitivity to all that.
You fiddle with land, and you take away a touch point for progress. You take away the idea that there is a reward for starting with a blank slate and cobbling together a bunch of parcels and renting them out to people who are there to chat and hang out and who might also get swept up in the ideas of others.
Pack Up Your Suitcase, We’re Taking Our Ideas Elsewhere
It won’t be long before NPIRL, teaming up with Rezzable, will just slice the whole thing off and move to another grid. They’re not building objects or date sims over there – they’re building a guild of talent, and one day soon they’re going to just decide to pack it up, throw it on their own servers, and off they go – and where once the concept of land might have kept some of their guild on the main grid, land has become worthless, and objects are copiable, but they get the IDEA that it’s experiences that count, because Linden sure isn’t making objects or land much of an incentive. And the poor coders and open source geeks will wake up and look around and not understand how they’re left with these worthless servers that no one wants to visit.
They threw down some freebies, after all. They swiped some stadiums from Clever Zebra. Their stuff looks OK….so how come no one’s showing up?
Over at Metaplace, they’re quietly going about the work of making the technology and the mechanics of server space as invisible as you can make it. They’re going on the premise that it’s not the tools, it’s making the tools simple. It’s not the code, it’s in making the code transparent. It’s in creating a place where the best idea wins, and the best idea has rewards, and there’s an economy to support that.
In Second Life, the notion of land was part of an economy of ideas. And in some ways it’s great that it’s cheap. But in other ways, being cheap, combined with all the other unintended consequences makes Linden an irrelevant part of the dialogue for what happens in Second Life. The Metaverse is bubbling up, the coders can go off and play with Sibley’s boxes and open source, the residents of the world can get what they want for pennies, and it will continue to look a bit better and be a bit more ubiquitous, but without a bit of land to call their own, and to use as their own little “lemonade stand” they’re going to look around and wonder “now what” and they’ll look for someone who can curate experiences and open up their minds to one or two good ideas.
They’ll look over to Linden, who will be extolling some new piece of technology or the latest crash statistic, but that’s not much of an idea you can rally around, Windlight might look OK but that isn’t something you IM your friends about. And then they’ll track down the content folks who, long ago, realized that Linden wasn’t really supporting anything, it was just hosting stuff, and that the stuff is how things are put together to create communities and experiences and new ways of thinking and new cultures, and wherever THOSE people are, off they’ll go, no big deal – their little parcel of land is just the price of playing the game for a while, it wasn’t worth so much anyways, or if it was it isn’t now, and it’s FREE over there, and the ideas are better, and all I really wanted was to have some fun, or meet some cool people, or expand my mind a little, this metaverse is a blast….because I can go ANYWHERE.
April 12, 2008 at 10:34 pm
With all my respect to you, I don’t quite understand your point, Dusan. Let me list some topics you were discussing in this article with a short comment.
1. THERE IS NO TECHNOLOGY and CAN NEVER BE that would protect content in a way you are asking for. In order to be rendered on your screen ALL objects and images MUST be decoded inside your viewer no matter what encryption or anything would be used. Even if LL wouldn’t open the source code of their viewer it would be reverse-engineered by someone, ‘patched’ and those ‘patches’ would be selling in the same way as they sell ‘decoders’ to the videogame boxes (if I remember the statistics right about 70% of UK gamers use them). THERE IS NO SUCH THING as ‘copy-protection’ in digital world and will never be. That’s the REALITY (for more than 2 decades). Why LL is to blame personally for this FACT? I don’t quite get it, sorry.
2. IMHO, land is not an ‘idea’, it’s a METAPHOR. You and many people (some of the 13 million, maybe even the majority) feel comfortable with this METAPHOR… how about the rest 6 something billion people on this planet? Are you sure they like it as much as you do? And it’s not quite true by the way… it’s not the ‘land’ that counts in SL, it’s SPACE and the ability to build or buy something, place it there (in that space you own) and ‘OWN’ it. So, the psychologically important is the ’sense of ownership’ in SPACE/items and their persistense (you log off but you know that IT’S ALL THERE). This sense of ownership doesn’t depend on price. So, basically, the END USERS, who don’t create, they just build a composition of objects and environment… they don’t give a s…t about ‘price’, oh! no! they do, they want it to be FREE as everything else on the Internet pretty much IS (didn’t you notice?).
3. As to the ‘economy’ argument… did you EVER consider to balance the real expences ABSOLUTELY necessary to build a CIVILIZED business in VW with a customer support, fast response, personnel talking to people in a civilized way and the amount of money that it MAY make? The examples of content and services built in SL so far don’t impress me, sorry, they are all built on a principle: “My clients SWALLOW what I do ‘as it is’, I can not and will not do anything else, it would be too expensive”. Hence the abandoned vendors, IM me, I will log-in in no more than a couple of hours… Is it a ‘business’? Nope. It’s a PATCH, or ‘lemonade stand’ if you liked that mepaphor more. There’s no sufficient DEMAND for products and services to build a CIVILIZED business, I’m telling you. Some people had a DREAM, that as soon as the ‘mass customer’ will come to SL there WILL be enough demand – it hasn’t happened so far, maybe it will, but I think that the main obstacle were technical limitations (maximum number of avatars in the sim in the first place).
So… really… what’s your point, Dusan? You want to suggest an alternative program supported by numbers? I mean REAL program. Please do it ASAP.
April 13, 2008 at 2:41 am
Alex –
I think you pretty much got my point.
I don’t believe content can be protected, which doesn’t mean people can’t try, I just don’t think I’m going to be getting into the IP business any time soon.
Space/land…same thing, not sure what you mean? I call it an idea, you call it metaphor, I call it land you call it space.
I’m not sure which “economy argument” you’re referring to? You sound as if you’re referring to a discussion of how real world companies can make money in SL? I’m referring to the fact that for all the discussion about servers and open source and all those copiable objects that the only real economy that matters is the marketplace for ideas.
And as far as I can tell, I wasn’t offering any prescriptives, either for Linden Labs, businesses, coders or others. It’s just me with my spaghetti plate of thoughts, so I’m afraid that for this post I have nothing to offer as far as alternatives.
It’s just my little window into the issues of the day in SL, by virtue of which it doesn’t make a lot of sense, I don’t give a lot of guidance on where it’s going, and it’s time for me to crash now, so we’ll have to pick this up in the morning.
April 13, 2008 at 10:03 am
I found this to be an interesting article (although I’m not sure all your ‘future’ predictions are dead on target…
).
Virtual Worlds (and our one especially) are indeed more about creativity and ideas than any first life world will ever be. It’s easy to have luxury here, so there’s no point in gaining as much (virtual) wealth as you can. Land is (fairly) cheap, so there’s no much status to achieve by owning a lot. It’s the ideas and how you execute it that count. I’m am bound to be more impressed by someone who can build, script, animate, … than by someone who has 50k L$ on his balance to spend.
Kind regards,
Vint
April 13, 2008 at 10:04 am
PS. Microsoft pontificating on what the Metaverse should be, which is a mirror world, but hopefully shinier with a proprietary operating system. => LMPAO! Lovely sentence. =)
April 13, 2008 at 12:37 pm
My apologies, Dusan if the question about your personal suggestions sounded ‘aggressive’ or something, but it’s just about time to abandon thea Wicked Witch of the Second Life style FOREVER and start talking POSITIVELY, you know?
What would you suggest as a reasonable program for SL (and other VW) development? How should they proceede in your opinion?
April 13, 2008 at 12:59 pm
Also, you came up with a brilliant words once: “a platform for story-telling”. That’s a great achievement, I can tell you. Now, here’s a couple of questions in this regard:
1. WHO will be telling stories?
2. WHAT kind of a stories that might be?
Prompt: Success stories of a “How I made my first million in Second Life” kind are not an option, it’s OVER.
April 13, 2008 at 1:18 pm
Awwww what a nice way to wake up, reading your replies.
And yeah, I was a bit cranky Alex. I’m sooooo tired of all the crashy coding copyright moaning (not that a great deal of it isn’t justified), and I’m sorry if I sounded aggressive back or contributed to it, the whole point of my piece was to try to express what I see as the dominant moods and themes (or MY dominant moods and themes) which distracts (me at least) from the real discoveries to be had.
I’m trying to make the point that “Linden is making itself irrelevant” because we spend too much time worrying about Linden and not enough time trailing Bettina around the grid to see what tales people are telling.
My story box post is how I feel on good days, but also that the tensions produced in virtual worlds are a source of deep creativity and change.
Thank you for the replies. It means a lot to me.
April 13, 2008 at 3:50 pm
Morning, Dusan.
Yes, I agree with you when you are talking about ‘tensions’, but… Who said it will be without them? That’s the whole point – this is a NEW THING, it is DIFFERENT (because of the highly immersive nature of the experience). Immersiveness means two things (and you can’t get one without another):
1. People get involved much more
2. If disappointed they will get frustrated MUCH MORE.
See what I mean?
Now, here’s my humble opinion: we (the people) need to LEARN how to use this thing WISELY. This in it’s turn requires us to think, discuss the possible solutions in a positive manner, make decisions (personal and as a community), ACT UPON.
What’s the main obstacle right now? Again, IMHO, the obstacle is the ANONYMITY. ‘Ideas’ are fine, but the ability to ACT upon ideas is closely related to the real life standing, abilities and resources. People who want to ’stay avatars’ – are NOT the type of ‘community’ that will ACT as a whole, see what I mean?
Also, as I said above, there’s not enough DEMAND for a grass-root growth of businesses YET. We all need to proliferate the idea of OPPORTUNITIES, available in VWs, not scare people to death with the negative experiences we all had at least once in a while.
Also, it’s high time for us all to realize that SL as many other things before is just another USEFUL TOOL for the humanity, no more, but no less! Well… it’s a powerful tool I must addmit… which only means that we all need to use it WISELY.
Personaly, I just don’t read posts on the multiple blogs I read every day apparently NOT leading to a consensus or a development of one. It’s always pretty much obvious whether a person wants to ‘change the life to better’ if you will or just to pore an ocean of personal dissatisfaction on the poor reader’s head.
So, maybe you explore the issue of anonymity and it’s consequences some day? I think – THAT is the main root of the frustrations you were talking about.
Regards.
April 13, 2008 at 6:57 pm
Hmmm intriguing thoughts Alex and I have to say you set me up perfectly for a series I’m doing on that very topic.
Just a quick response, I’d like to answer you in more detail, but there’s a corner of the Grid that needs me, (I think).
April 13, 2008 at 9:06 pm
[...] This post on the economy of Second Life and how SL’s creative class soon will have plenty of options to choose from. [...]
April 13, 2008 at 9:32 pm
[...] Content is copiable, land is free, long live the creators (tags: metaverse secondlife internet) [...]
April 14, 2008 at 12:30 am
[...] Content is Copiable, Land is Free, Long Live the Creators – Interesting pondering over Virtual Worlds by Dusan Writer. Although I don’t agree with all of her future predictions, imho, she points out some real issues and possibilities. [...]
April 14, 2008 at 3:47 am
Interesting slide show about 3d worlds online.
We saw it before in 1996, then again in 2001.
Good to see it’s still around;)
Expensive I’ll bet.
April 14, 2008 at 6:59 pm
hehe
Reusability is indeed a useful concept.
LOL
April 15, 2008 at 1:35 pm
Im so glad to have run across this entry on Virtually Blind. I must say that the dialogue has completely provoked this response. I didn’t intend to respond….but here goes…I really thought that the idea reference was interesting. I must agree that for me the idea was about a new space to create and new opportunity to contribute and to be of service to other contributors. I am in the IP business; Director of the Virtual Intellectual Property Organization and practicing IP attorney. I was so glad to find such a large community of artists and inventors creating in virtual worlds and must admit I was pretty disappointed that, after centuries of international negotiation resulting in a nearly coordinated system of intellectual property rights recognition, their struggle continues and they must fight for their right to be recognized, protected and paid. Participating in creation of any sort is brave, priceless and deserves reward and recognition. As far as effective digital rights management, I am uncertain of its form but I have no doubt that we will see it happen. I, in the meantime, will use all the resources and tools at my disposal to assist content creators in their efforts to enforce and protect their intellectual property rights. Perhaps THE idea is that we’re all a little closer now than before and that its a little easier meet and share our ideas with each other. Why then now, of all times, be exclusive? Only IP, only open source; now more than ever we should be able to address the complexity of circumstances and allow situations to direct their own response. Let those who open source do so, support those who seek their enforcement, in other words, the VIPO way (much like the way of the Jedi… only stronger:)mtfbwy).