Is the Metaverse Less Real if Madison Avenue Says It Ain’t? (Report from the Virtual Worlds Conference)

The Virtual World Conference was a sort of giddy hallucination for me, never having been before, and maybe I’m LUCKY (based on other reports) that it’s a bit more somber and less gushing than past events. Everything feels a bit more gray these days, constant drizzle in New York (gave me a cold) and all these “bad vibes man” coming from Wall Street and Main Street and CNN, but for me it was a thrill to see the Lindens, and Philip, who was looking well barbered and tanned in his Neko collar and visionary vision, all the Californians seemed to look well barbered and tanned.

Thing is, a number of years ago I went to this Internet conference. 1998 I think it was. Maybe 99. Yeah, I was a child really (uh huh). And everyone had this sort of money-eyed happiness, a sense of prosperity and limitless futures, and I was walking around trying to figure out where all this money was supposed to come from, because for all the portals and aggregating eyeballs and paradigm shifts in industries and pet food online and groceries online and B2B and B2C and who knows what else, I didn’t see anyone actually PAYING for anything, and so ended up being very confused and decided that this Internet thing was TOO big and TOO massive and just TOO, and I couldn’t handle it, so I’d just plod along with my weary little life and make money by doing work and getting paid for it.

So fast forward a decade or so to the Virtual World Conference, where Cory Ondrejka (formerly of Second Life) came in and had a look around and sounds a little glum about the prospects. And Prok observes that (until we hit Toronto) there is no Metaverse. And it all feels a little slow and sad and the shine is off.

But then, I’ve never been here before, and maybe if I went a year or two ago I would have walked away, scared off by too much gushing and too many wide eyed adventurers, but instead I showed up THIS year, and looked around, and figured, well, hey, people are just trying to make a living I guess, trying to cobble together some ideas and find someone to pay for it, so it can’t be THAT bad.

So here’s my take – if you hang out in virtual worlds, don’t worry – you didn’t miss anything. Sure, there’s some improvements coming, Multiverse has a “flat app” version of their platform so you can view it in a browser. Vast Park is plodding along. RealXtend was there, and they have some neat stuff to say, and open source is a bubbling little corner of progress. But really? Nothing much is gonna change – not until Blue Mars comes out, at least, and they have a LOT of proof-of-concept before they’re anywhere close, and besides you’d better power up your computer because it’s gonna take a monster to run.

So go about your business everyone, there’s nothing to see here. A new mouse maybe, for Second Life, kind of cool. Servers behind the IBM firewalls, but that hardly affects your beach side property or store selling Gor slave gear. Some amazing new technologies integrating better voice in VWs, which will make collaboration a lot easier. But otherwise, well…if you have kids, there’s a lot of Habbo/Club Penguin lookalikes on tap. And otherwise…well. Hmm. Not much to report.

Oh. But hold on. Because I forgot to mention who WASN’T here.

EA wasn’t here. Because isn’t the next version of the Sims kind of a virtual world? Their next iteration will include user generated content and a better economy and some good looking avatars and nicely textured builds.

And surely Spore isn’t a virtual world, is it? Because you don’t have multiple concurrent users, you just have millions of users playing separately in a universe where their creations co-mingle.

And Sony Home wasn’t here either, because it’s one of those *ick* platform things.

And while we’re at it, the New Media Consortium wasn’t there either. And the university guys weren’t there with their expressive avatars and 3D cameras and mixed reality platforms. And the 3DVIA guys weren’t here with their emerging virtual world platforms. And Google wasn’t there (well, some Google guys WERE there, but they were always at the back of the room and they were VERY low profile).

The Electric Sheep were there, too, and Sibley was even a keynote, and while he’s no doubt a genius, I can’t help thinking that ESC protests too much, Giff having recently thrown in the towel on Second Life and then said on this blog “no, we haven’t” and then Sibley saying “well, yes we have” … for NOW, because the issue isn’t Second Life, said Sibley, it’s that it had a nice blip on the technology up ramp and then stopped, and virtual worlds are stalled in general because there’s so much damn WORK to do on the underpinning code, and those blasted advertisers still measure things by eyeballs, how the heck will we ever convince them unless we get the eyeballs.

I’m simplifying, for sure, and will get into it more I figure once Sibley gets his blog up and running where he’s promising a big old fashioned conversation to try to get our IT acts together and plan and move this thing up a notch or two, headed to that gold pot of the metaverse of which they all supposedly dreamed.

But I don’t get it.

For all this stuff about all the things that virtual worlds need to pop, for the metaverse to happen, well…well…see, what everyone seems to say they want are things like:

Brand Experiences
- Immersive experiences – “engagement” is the key thing. Like places you go to, and people hang out, and listen to music or live DJs, and really, really get INTO their little virtual lives.
- Objects as branded experiences. As in, things that are made are bought or won or traded or sold amongst users. Objects are coveted and loved and treated as status symbols and are given away, shared, admired.
- The ability to create ambassadors for experiences and brands, kind of like how there’s Facebook, or how there’s communities of bloggers who generate lots of traffic and cross interest and cross posting and “buzz”.

Education and Collaboration and New Ways of Doing Business
Places where people can go and have a sense of presence, and share ideas, and work together in new and different ways, and maybe invent some new business processes, or new thing kind of like 3D Wikis or who knows what, the possibilities are endless. Meetings in virtual spaces with people from all over the world, chatting using text and/or voice and sharing ideas.

Actually, you know, I won’t go on, because my point is sort of made already.

A couple of brands came in to Second Life and they flopped. And the Sheep people can blame the technology, but it wasn’t the residents or the Lindens who said that 10s of thousands of people would be soooo grabbed by a CSI episode that they would be compelled to get up off their comfy couches and turn on the computer, it was NBC and ESC. It wasn’t, I’m sure, the Lindens who said they’d better set up 400 sims so that their entertaining and engaging Cisco signs wouldn’t crash the Grid.

(By the way – did you SEE the episode? I was too lazy to get away from my computer to watch, but maybe ESC should blame the network TV people for a lack of creativity, from what I heard.)

So in the meantime, I figure, let all the people who are looking for venture money plod away at the Sibley technology road map. Because every time I log on to the Grid I find some new little application, some new branded experience (it’s just that they’re branded by RESIDENTS not by the multinationals), some new education methodology, some little piece of script, some improvement in the way we communicate and collaborate.

The Metaverse is alive and well.

It may not be where we think it is. Maybe it’s hidden in the universities and in mixed reality, and augmented reality, and gaming platforms. Or maybe it’s still where we once thought it was, it’s just that a collective blind eye has been turned (even by the Lindens themselves but thank goodness not by IBM), which gives me a big sigh of relief, because we’re safe for now, we can go about our normal business, we can build the Metaverse in relative quiet, until one day it’s just there…and if we do it right, we’ll build it before someone else has the chance to co-opt the dream again.

7 Responses to “Is the Metaverse Less Real if Madison Avenue Says It Ain’t? (Report from the Virtual Worlds Conference)”

  1. Digado Says:

    What a GREAT article… you really captured my feelings of the last 4 months in a way I’ve been looking to word them, but I guess I won’t need to now :)

    Yes the ‘metaverse’ is still being developed, no its not ready for mainstream, yes a lot of empty promises are being made, no it won’t be ready tomorrow, yes it will take time to find application to create a valuable contribution to everyday life by individual projects, no there is nothing wrong with the commerce taking place – just don’t conclude a failure of the platform because they fail to address their audiences, yes its time to look further then just Second Life, no you won’t create critical mass just because you tell ‘the masses’ to rush in.

  2. Giff Constable Says:

    Hi Dusan,
    I’m a bit puzzled by what you say about ESC, so will try to clarify a few things.
    - Yes, we’re not working much on SL right now (because most of corporate engagement with SL is in training/collab and that’s not our focus).
    - No, we’re not saying that SL is doomed or that LL can’t fix the problems.
    - No, we’re not saying that SL is useless for everyone, just that it isn’t fitting *our* needs right now.
    - No, we’re not blaming everything on technology, but we do think that technology is more *in the way* than it should be, so we continue to explore different paths. You’ll note on my blog I also spend a lot of time talking about culture lag as well.

    One are where Sibley and I tend to disagree is the time to a “metaverse” (I think it will take longer). But yes, the virtual worlds industry is alive and kicking, with lots of exploration. I think it is healthy that we’re out of hype mode and into productive creation mode.

  3. Giff Constable Says:

    also side, nitpicky note: I continue to be stumped at how intelligent people such as yourself fail to realize that 400 sims were brought to bear to handle the inherently unpredictable initial spike (the slashdot effect, if you will) when the episode first aired. We did not expect to need all 400 sims on an ongoing basis, and the number of sims was indeed reduced. Obviously this kind of sharding and load balancing system in SL, needed to handle spikes, is a bit clunky — you shouldn’t need to reserve 400 sims but should be able to dynamically allocate new servers, but that’s impossible — nevertheless LL was very helpful during this process and we all got the job done. I do wish that CBS would let us share some numbers about that SL project, since I think in a vacuum people are fearing the worst, but hands are tied. As with all projects, there were things that could have been improved from all parties. The project pushed the boundaries and accomplished a lot of exciting things as well.

  4. dusanwriter Says:

    Giff:

    Thanks for the clarification, and by the way, I wanted to say hi at the conference but was too gobsmacked by all the luminaries, just sort of sat and soaked it all up, was mesmerized by Sibley and his passion (and body language) and now want to open a clarification back, having reached deep in my soul (well, as deep as my soul goes I suppose) to think through what I mean when I say what isn’t necessarily what was intended. Um. yeah.

    So first – the main thrust of this post is that there were a lot of people talking about technology hurdles, and then pitching their platforms as addressing little gaps on the IT map, and then the big “culture gap” was being addressed in the kid’s worlds, but still, my take on Sibley’s talk was that Second Life was building a platform, and a technology, and then it sort of stalled, and it may be that the CSI project and others did the best they could, and excelled at that, but that it is too difficult on the current platform to ramp it all up to the next level – a million users, say, accessing a CSI “world” within Second Life.

    As Sibley pointed out, there’s reasons for this (in general, I mean), and specific hurdles, and no one seemed to be blaming anyone, it’s just the way it is right now – a few tech holes need to be filled, and the solutions might be within the closed domains of kid’s worlds, and we’ll be climbing the slope to the metaverse again soon.

    (Oh…I checked last night…Sibley’s blog isn’t up yet? I thought it was promised for Monday? Dying to post on it!)

    I suppose however that what I have difficulty with isn’t the fact that there were 400 sims and what that might have implied about the number of users, I just use that as shorthand for a sense that the expectation and delivery weren’t quite in synch.

    I point to the following comments made by Anthony Zuiker to UgoTrade, for example:

    “But for CSI: New York we are definitely continuing narrative not only on Oct 24th into world but on February 6th paying it off on the air. And continuing the story line in Second Life beyond February 6th and the sky’s the limit. I believe that at some point it will go so deep that I will start creating original programming inside Second Life – literally like a South Park in Second Life that is original with characters that I create that continues the storyline also.”

    and….

    “I was very clear to the Electric Sheep I have no interest in dazzling the Second Life veteran. That is not what I am doing. I am trying to get mass here and really create a community that is a lot deeper than 38 to 40, ooo [concurrency] and 9 million membership.”

    So, here’s the thing. And I’m not trying to be nit-picky.

    There was an expectation that there was a tipping point in the offing. I was still a relative newcomer to virtual worlds at the time. I was excited, because it really did feel like some of Anthony’s promises might come true.

    You’ve been saying that the initiative achieved a return on investment. But what I’m saying is that the 400 sims, plus the press, plus the presentation at the previous VW conference…this was interpreted by a community of observers as an expression of optimism and hope that Second Life would attract the “non 38-40/9 million member” others….not sure, the 20 year olds? The millions of them? Not sure, it was a feeling not a specific target, or number, or dollar figure…a feeling that there might be a cultural shift, and an engagement of a wider audience.

    So why wasn’t this achieved? Was it and we don’t know it? I’m not sure. Sibley was clearly saying “OK, bigger picture, the metaverse needs more work, and Second Life was great and we’ll be back when it improves, but we’re done there for now with those big build tipping point projects”.

    I don’t think I said that you were claiming SL is doomed or not for others, by the way. If that was implied, apologies, not sure how it could have been.

    But how do we reconcile the hopes and aspirations of the community of metaverse types that there was a chance to have a tipping point, it didn’t come, and now in response what we sort of hear is “we’re moving to widgets and mini games and we’re sort of waiting for the IT people to catch up”. It’s not that the strategy is wrong, but we all want to help!

    ESC is a beacon to virtual world enthusiasts everywhere. You’ve managed to push the envelope, learn, advocate, sell, evangelize, entertain, attract, and build out your assets and learnings. But as a beacon, you have to understand that there was also disappointment that the “400 sim promise” (again, it’s not the 400 sims, it’s what they implied and what was communicated through the media) didn’t quite materialize (sure, you may have achieved ROI, but it was the implication of a larger cultural shift), and that the latest perspective is less “beacon-y”.

    Sibley talked about technology, and it feels as if we’re moving into a phase in which “we’d better sort of ride the Web 2.0 slipstream for the time being while the coders get their acts together”.

    And by the way. I’m engaged by these things. I’m engaged by the process and lessons and insights you guys share. Because there are a lot of people who wonder how they can make small contributions to advocating for the metaverse, whether on their little corner of the Mainland, building a Metaplace application, or just writing about it to continue stimulating thinking and innovation on “what next”.

  5. Giff Constable Says:

    nice response dusan. I agree that there was hope inside and outside of ESC that the CSI project could give SL a nudge and knock down a few more dominoes to get it more mainstream ready. The actual result was more mixed. The writer’s strike did not help at all, but that was just one of many contributing factors.

    I’ve had a few people tell me “stop blaming the platform”. I am just trying to explain to the public why *we* are moving away from ESC for the immediate future. Reuben got up at VWC and said stop fretting about technology limitations, and focus on narrative and why we love virtual worlds.

    I still love virtual worlds, but I’m too much of a pragmatist to be able to stop thinking about the technical issues. It doesn’t matter how much we love virtual worlds, it is the user experience that matters. Now I understand working with the tools you have, rather than whining about what is wrong with them, and we’ve done that with SL for some time, but we have decided to change toolsets.

    The folks who are focusing on enterprise/corporate collaboration, like IBM, Cisco, Rivers Run Red and others, are continuing to use the SL toolset and I think that’s great. Methinks I should bring some of these thoughts to out to pasture to clear up some stuff.

  6. dusanwriter Says:

    I look forward to the post Giff, your blog is a must-read for me.

    And, not being a techy myself, I only understand the limitations in the fuzziest terms. Whether applied to Second Life or virtual worlds in general, my posting on narrative sums up my general feelings about the ’space’ but doesn’t necessarily give any tips on how to turn that into a mass market, or even niche market opportunity (although I have my own thoughts on the side)…just that it’s an exciting area to be involved in. And that I love stories.

    http://dusanwriter.wordpress.com/2008/03/22/the-story-box-second-life-magic/

  7. Avatrian: Our Blogs Says:

    [...] Dusan’s observations are keen and precise. He didn’t only describe what happened at the event. But, he analyzed it as well. Maybe Barbie Dolls were de-constructed a little bit too much in the beginning. But there was a point to it (i.e., companies who understand their brand and audience are more likely to succeed in their expansions to the metaverse). And keep reading, it gets even better towards the end. He has the most appropriate last name…the guy can definitely write. Make sure that you read both blogs. (Full article here followed by another one here.) [...]


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