Countdown to History? CSI in Second Life. Can 400+ sims be wrong?

Wednesday sees a special episode of CSI New York called “Down the Rabbit Hole” in which the pursuit of a killer takes Gary Sinise into Second Life.

A plot summary and overview of the sim interactions describes:

The episode will see Mac Taylor (Gary Sinise) entering Second Life to pursue a killer who has killed a Second Life user in a case of virtual stalking gone too far.

CSI:NY fans will be encouraged to join Second Life and investigate the case by following a link on the CBS website. CSI:NY will have three options for CSI-related inworld activities. The first option will allow viewers to walk around virtual New York buildings and visit a CSI lab and play forensic games.

The second option consists of a game called “Murder by Zuiker,” a unique murder plot which can be solved by users finding clues. The 100 people who come closest to solving the murder will win virtual gifts.

The big tie-in gives new users the ability to become CSI investigators, complete with field kit and tools, and are given a chance to interview suspects and to solve the murder featured in the actual CSI:NY episode. The episode itself will apparently end in a cliff-hanger with the solution not revealed until February.

There have been a lot of blog posts and some minor main stream new coverage. Electric Sheep is launching a new client viewer along with the episode. And there has been a lot of speculation as to the importance of this episode.

I think, however, that it wasn’t enough to tip me off to the impact of this TV tie-in.

And I may have under-estimated how critical this might be. I saw it as perhaps a measure of whether Second Life is a viable platform as a virtual world for commercial and consumer purposes.

It was only after browsing my SL map that I started realizing this might be a defining media moment for the Metaverse with an impact for years to come.

I ran a search on CSI to see what we might be looking at – what does the build look like (even from a sky shot), how many sims, etc (I was hoping to sneak in but of course the sims are closed to the public for now).

I was taken aback to see the length of the list.

Over 400 sims have been brought on stream as of tonight devoted to the CSI episode.

With an avatar load of about 50, that would mean a capacity for 20,000 simultaneous users. If we assume a viral effect, or assume that some people will log on in the days that follow, and that the users will float from one sim to another, this might be an influx of new users numbering in the 100s of thousands.

One estimate tags it at 1,000,000 new users.

How many will stay? Will the grid have the capacity?

Do they have extra sims as back-up that they can bring online if they needed to?

(If it was my project I would, nothing would be more of a disaster than having to turn back “eyeballs” for the sponsors and network).

So, item two then becomes media exposure – coverage on local news? Main networks? Newspaper reviews and coverage? Is there a simultaneous press tour of the sims or have they happened already?

Malcolm Galdwell writes about tipping points – and this may be a tipping point in one direction or another. If the grid can’t handle the new users, if they can’t see a reason to stay (will there be landmark packages to other sections of the grid as part of the new viewer and avatar package that Electric Sheep has developed?)….will the media dismiss it? Will the metaverse be considered a fad that can’t deliver on its promise? Or will this be just enough to start switching the tide in the other direction?

400+ sims is an astonishing number.

Stay tuned Wednesday night. This will be a historic moment one way or the other.

(Oh, but P.S…..if it’s a crap episode who knows, maybe they’ll blame the show. Check out the latest ad):